March 11, 2025, 2:21 pm | Read time: 6 minutes
Breast cancer is the most common type of cancer in women. Once diagnosed, there are numerous treatment options ranging from surgery and radiotherapy to anti-hormone therapies. The earlier breast cancer is detected, the higher the chance that the cancer can be cured. However, it appears that screening tests are still not being carried out sufficiently — the death figures speak for themselves.
In Germany, around 74,500 women are diagnosed with breast cancer every year.1 Globally, there were around 2.3 million new cases in 2022, and 670,000 women died from the disease.2 However, these figures are not the only cause for concern — a new study has also been published. This predicts drastically increasing rates of breast cancer diagnoses and deaths by 2050. This makes it abundantly clear that the prevention and early detection of breast cancer with the help of screenings should be given even greater focus.
Overview
Large Differences Between High- and Low-Income Countries
“Every minute, four women worldwide are diagnosed with breast cancer, and one woman dies from the disease, and this statistic is getting worse,” says Dr. Joanne Kim, who was involved in the study, emphasizing the importance of the analysis.3 Previous evaluations have shown that there are clear differences between high- and low-income countries: While the majority of women survive in wealthy countries, more than half of those who contract the disease die in poorer countries.4 Causes include limited early detection programs and restricted access to modern treatment.
The World Health Organization (WHO), therefore, launched the Global Breast Cancer Initiative in 2021, which aims to reduce annual breast cancer mortality worldwide by 2.5 percent. Some countries, such as Belgium and Denmark, have already achieved this target, but many others still have major deficits. This study examines the current and future global burden of breast cancer and highlights the urgent need for action.
Use of Data from Health Registers
The study analyzed the current (2022) and future (2050) burden of breast cancer worldwide. One focus was on assessing regional differences in morbidity and mortality rates.5 The aim was to identify trends and predict the impact on different groups of countries, particularly those with a low Human Development Index (HDI).
The analysis is based on epidemiological data from several established cancer registry systems, such as the GLOBOCAN database, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus, and WHO mortality databases:
- Current Burden (2022): GLOBOCAN database, which provides country-specific incidence and mortality rates for breast cancer.
- Projections for 2050: Estimates are based on current trends and model calculations on population growth, aging, and changes in risk factors.
- Trend analyses (2010-2020): Incidence and mortality rates were examined for 50 and 46 countries, respectively, to assess year-to-year changes in case numbers and survival rates.
A key objective was to evaluate the success of existing breast cancer control measures, including the WHO initiative to reduce mortality rates through early detection, timely diagnosis, and better treatment options. Particular attention was paid to classifying the data according to the Human Development Index (HDI) in order to identify differences between countries with high, medium, and low economic development.
Increase in Numbers by 2050
The analyses show an alarming trend. In 2022, there were 2.3 million cases of breast cancer and 670,000 deaths. According to the forecast, this number of breast cancer diagnoses could increase by 38 percent by 2050, which corresponds to 3.2 million people. In terms of the mortality rate, an even higher increase is observed: around 68 percent of those diagnosed with breast cancer are expected to die from the disease, which corresponds to around 1.1 million deaths.
Large Differences Between Some Countries
The regional differences are considerable. The highest disease rates were found in Australia, New Zealand, North America, and Northern Europe, while the lowest were in South Asia and parts of Africa. The highest mortality rates were found in Melanesia, Polynesia, and West Africa, where many women do not have access to modern treatment options.
The results show a clear discrepancy between wealthy and poorer countries in terms of survival rates. Countries with a very high level of development show a decrease in the mortality rate in many cases. In 29 countries, including Belgium and Denmark, the annual mortality rate falls by at least 2.5 percent. In contrast, no comparable improvement can be seen in countries with a low level of development. While 83% of women affected in industrialized countries are still alive five years after diagnosis, more than half of those affected in low-income countries die. The difference lies in the existing healthcare systems: Countries with well-developed screening programs and effective treatment achieve better survival rates.
The WHO initiative to reduce breast cancer mortality is already showing success in some countries. Where systematic early detection programs are in place, the mortality rate is falling. Countries with medium and low levels of development urgently need to invest in prevention and care in order to stop the negative trend.
Classification of the Study
The study provides valuable insights into the development of breast cancer worldwide until 2050. It is based on renowned cancer registry data and offers a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of disease. Nevertheless, there are some limitations.
Data quality varies by region. Particularly in countries with a low level of development, there are often no reliable cancer registries, which can affect the accuracy of the forecasts. In addition, the model calculations for 2050 are based on current trends, which could still change as a result of medical advances or political measures.
There are also major differences within individual countries. City dwellers often have better access to medical care than people in rural areas, which cannot always be adequately taken into account in the data.
Despite these limitations, the study provides a sound basis for political measures and health strategies to reduce breast cancer mortality worldwide.
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Conclusion
Breast cancer remains one of the biggest health challenges worldwide. The study shows that the number of breast cancer diagnoses and deaths could rise dramatically by 2050, especially in countries with limited access to early detection and treatment. While wealthy nations are already seeing success in reducing mortality through systematic screening programs, many other countries are far behind.
Urgent action is needed to prevent the global increase in breast cancer mortality. Investment in early detection, better diagnosis, and modern treatment must be increased, especially in less developed countries. International cooperation and financial support could help to reduce existing inequalities and save the lives of millions of women.